Potential impacts of climate change on wild cherry distribution and associated consequences on brown bears

Abstract

Wild cherry (Prunus avium) is a climate-sensitive species of great ecological importance and has gained importance in the diet of the Cantabrian brown bear (Ursus arctos L.) in recent years. Understanding the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of wild cherry and the interactions with bears, specially dispersion to more suitable areas under future climate change scenarios, may help to improve the conservation of both species in the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain). We accurately modelled the current and future habitat suitability for wild cherry, constructing species distribution models (SDMs) based on true presence and absence data and environmental variables related to the species ecological limitations. Associated effects were assessed by intersecting the current and future distributions of both species. Seed dispersal by bears was assessed by examination of bear faeces collected between 1995 and 2020. The findings are fundamental for developing forestry plans and strategies and enabling timely and appropriate evidence-based actions to be taken for conservation of both species. We found that the impact of climate change will decrease the overall habitat suitability, with more suitable areas expected to occur at higher elevations, where cherry consumption by bears and associated seed dispersal due to the spatial use may favour upward dispersal of cherry, although success and adaptation will ultimately depend on whether the seeds will be deposited in the right places and their movement will overcome the effects of climate change.